Bay Area Housing Market Update – Entering 2026

A Data-Driven Look at Santa Clara, San Mateo, and Alameda Counties

With an engineering mindset, we analyze market data clinically rather than emotionally. As we close out 2025 and enter 2026, our review of 70+ comparative indicators across the Bay Area confirms a market operating at two distinct speeds, with materially different dynamics by county and property type.

Below is a structured snapshot of where the market stands today and what has changed over the past year.

Annual Market Performance – Median Sale Price

Single-family home pricing diverged meaningfully in 2025:

• Santa Clara County continued to expand, supported by tech liquidity.

• San Mateo County experienced a controlled price reset.

• Alameda County stabilized with mild softening.

This divergence is a defining characteristic of the current cycle.

Long-Term Appreciation

Despite recent softening, long-term appreciation remains substantial:

• All three counties show strong cumulative gains over the past decade.

• Single-family homes continue to outperform condos.

• Short-term volatility does not negate long-term equity growth.

Active Listings (Inventory Levels)

Active inventory rose meaningfully year over year:

• Buyers now have more options than in the past two years.

• The increase is most noticeable outside Santa Clara County.

• Inventory remains low by historical standards.

Price Reductions

Price reductions rose sharply in all three counties:

• Indicates growing seller flexibility.

• Most prevalent in condos and townhomes.

• Creates tactical opportunities for buyers.

Days on Market (Market Velocity)

Homes are taking longer to sell:

• Santa Clara remains the fastest-moving market.

• San Mateo and Alameda show meaningful slowdowns.

• Longer timelines allow for stronger due diligence.

New Listings (Supply Coming to Market)

New listing activity increased across the region:

• More sellers tested the market in 2025.

• Seasonal patterns remain intact.

• Higher supply contributed to improved buyer choice.

Sale-to-List Ratio (SP/LP %)

Overbidding cooled across the Bay Area:

• Santa Clara still averages above asking.

• San Mateo is closer to balanced pricing.

• Alameda now averages at or slightly below the list price.

Negotiation leverage has shifted toward buyers in most segments.

Months of Inventory (MSI)

Months of supply increased across all counties:

• Indicates a cooler, more rational market.

• Still far below pre-2019 levels.

• Signals balance, not oversupply.

Key Market Takeaways

• The Bay Area market is no longer uniform; micro-markets now drive outcomes.

• Santa Clara remains a high-velocity, seller-leaning environment.

• San Mateo and Alameda offer greater buyer leverage and negotiation flexibility.

• Single-family homes continue to outperform condos and townhomes.

Final Thought

The 2026 housing market rewards precision over urgency. Buyers and sellers who rely on broad headlines risk missing where real leverage exists today.

Success now comes from understanding county behavior, property type dynamics, and market velocity, not just price trends.

If you would like a neighborhood-level analysis or a strategy tailored to your specific situation, we are happy to provide a data-driven consultation.