The Bay Area real estate market continues to make headlines, with rising home values, strong demand, and record-breaking prices in key counties. Let’s break down the latest data to help you make informed real estate decisions.
1. Mortgage Rate Trends & Jumbo Loans
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for jumbo loans has fluctuated significantly in recent years. With rates stabilizing in 2025, jumbo loans—those above $806,500 in most counties and $1,209,750 in high-cost areas—remain a crucial factor for buyers in the Bay Area. Understanding these trends can help buyers and investors make strategic decisions.
2. Record-High Home Prices in San Mateo & Santa Clara
San Mateo County reached an all-time high median sales price of $1.96M, while Santa Clara followed closely with $1.9M. These increases are driven by limited supply, strong tech-sector earnings, and continued buyer demand.
3. Long-Term Price Appreciation Since 2019
Over the past five years, Santa Clara County home values have appreciated by 52%, the highest in the region. Monterey and Santa Cruz follow closely, demonstrating strong coastal demand. San Francisco, however, has seen the slowest growth at just 5%.
4. Overbidding Returns in Spring 2025
Historically, the Bay Area sees strong overbidding trends in spring, and early data suggests this year will be no different. Santa Clara and San Mateo counties are leading this trend, with average sales prices exceeding list prices by 3% and rising.
5. Low Inventory Keeps Market Competitive
Despite higher interest rates, inventory remains low. Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) is at its lowest point in early 2025, reinforcing a seller’s market in key areas like San Mateo and Santa Clara.
6. Dollar per Square Foot Value Insights
San Mateo leads the Bay Area with the highest median house dollar per square foot value at $1,157, followed by Santa Clara at $1,109 and San Francisco at $1,000. Smaller homes generally sell for a higher price per square foot, reinforcing value trends.
7. Market Trends: Supply & Bidding Patterns
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Santa Clara & San Mateo Value Trends – Historical data from 2005 to 2025 shows consistent long-term appreciation, with recent dips due to macroeconomic factors.
- Sales Price vs. List Price Trends – Santa Clara and San Mateo show cyclical overbidding patterns, peaking in the spring season.
Final Thoughts
The Bay Area market remains highly dynamic, with limited inventory and strong demand continuing to push prices upward. As we head deeper into 2025, expect continued competition, especially in high-demand counties.
Looking for a strategic approach to buying or selling? We specialize in off-market deals and work with an extensive lender network to secure the best rates for our clients.
Call us at 650-630-9810 to discuss your real estate goals today.
